Severe Weather Threat for The Carolinas Saturday

Severe Weather Threat for The Carolinas Saturday

As we mentioned yesterday parts of The Eastern USA would be in line for severe weather.
Right now the STORM PREDICTION Center has Central and Eastern North Carolina and South Carolina are under a enhanced 30% risk of severe weather.

..SOUTHERN INTO MIDDLE ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS  
  
ALTHOUGH THE APPROACHING MID/UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO EVENTUALLY  
TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT ORIENTATION...APPRECIABLE STEEPENING OF  
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY BEFORE LOW-LEVEL COLD  
ADVECTION DIMINISHES CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL SATURDAY NIGHT.   
HOWEVER...AN INFLUX OF SEASONABLY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT  
/PRECIPITABLE WATER AOA 1.5 INCHES/ PROBABLY WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AT  
LEAST WEAK CAPE EAST OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.  THIS IS  
EXPECTED TO BE BOUNDARY LAYER BASED ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND  
SOUTHERN GEORGIA...INTO PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT AND MID  
ATLANTIC COASTAL PLAIN...WHILE A RESIDUAL COOL/STABLE SURFACE BASED  
LAYER LINGERS CLOSER TO THE BLUE RIDGE AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE  
NORTHERN DELMARVA PENINSULA.  
  
GIVEN THE INSTABILITY...FORCING NEAR THE WEAK SURFACE WAVE...AND  
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPSTREAM IMPULSE...IS EXPECTED TO  
CONTRIBUTE TO CONSIDERABLE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON  
INTO SATURDAY EVENING...WITH ONE OR MORE EVOLVING LINES OF  
THUNDERSTORMS.  IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AND DEEP  
LAYER MEAN FLOW...INCLUDING A RATHER STRONG SOUTHERLY 850 MB JET  
WHICH MODELS GENERALLY SUGGEST MAY BE ON THE ORDER OF 50 TO 70  
KTS...STRONGEST CONVECTION WILL PROBABLY INCLUDE A RISK FOR DAMAGING  
WIND GUSTS.  THE ENVIRONMENT MAY EVEN BECOME CONDUCIVE TO  
SUPERCELLS...AT LEAST EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LINES...IF NOT  
DISCRETE...WITH A RISK FOR TORNADOES.  

Polar Vortex Moving North, Warming Temps, Severe Weather Chance

Polar Vortex Moving North, Warming Temps, Severe Weather Chance

The polar vortex that brought record low temperatures across the United States is retreating back north into Canada returning warming temperatures across areas that have seen wide spread damage, power outages and dangerous road conditions. Looking ahead the next 5 days, nothing major is showing up on the models and temps look to be average for most of the USA.

A system will come in the Pacific Northwest causing rain and snow in that area and will slide across the Northern USA bringing some snow into the Northern Plains and Upper Michigan. The next concern for any inclement weather will be Tomorrow and Saturday with some thunderstorms in the Gulf of Mexico and the Deep South. A few isolated severe thunderstorm warnings are possible in this area in the next 48 hours.

The next concern for any severe weather across the USA will be Sunday when the Eastern Seaboard from Southern Virgina into Northern Flordia as you see outline in the green on this map.

Severe thunderstorms with damaging winds, some hail to the size of quarters and even a couple of isolated tornadoes are possible in these areas Sunday. This risk will likely be moved some by Sunday, so stay turned to Severe Weather Alerts for the latest forecast and alerts. We let you know DAYS in advance when severe weather is headed your way :) Bookmark now.

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