Severe Weather Threat for The Carolinas Saturday
As we mentioned yesterday parts of The Eastern USA would be in line for severe weather.Right now the STORM PREDICTION Center has Central and Eastern North Carolina and South Carolina are under a enhanced 30% risk of severe weather.
..SOUTHERN INTO MIDDLE ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS
ALTHOUGH THE APPROACHING MID/UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO EVENTUALLY
TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT ORIENTATION...APPRECIABLE STEEPENING OF
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY BEFORE LOW-LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION DIMINISHES CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL SATURDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...AN INFLUX OF SEASONABLY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT
/PRECIPITABLE WATER AOA 1.5 INCHES/ PROBABLY WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AT
LEAST WEAK CAPE EAST OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO BE BOUNDARY LAYER BASED ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND
SOUTHERN GEORGIA...INTO PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT AND MID
ATLANTIC COASTAL PLAIN...WHILE A RESIDUAL COOL/STABLE SURFACE BASED
LAYER LINGERS CLOSER TO THE BLUE RIDGE AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN DELMARVA PENINSULA.
GIVEN THE INSTABILITY...FORCING NEAR THE WEAK SURFACE WAVE...AND
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPSTREAM IMPULSE...IS EXPECTED TO
CONTRIBUTE TO CONSIDERABLE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SATURDAY EVENING...WITH ONE OR MORE EVOLVING LINES OF
THUNDERSTORMS. IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AND DEEP
LAYER MEAN FLOW...INCLUDING A RATHER STRONG SOUTHERLY 850 MB JET
WHICH MODELS GENERALLY SUGGEST MAY BE ON THE ORDER OF 50 TO 70
KTS...STRONGEST CONVECTION WILL PROBABLY INCLUDE A RISK FOR DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS. THE ENVIRONMENT MAY EVEN BECOME CONDUCIVE TO
SUPERCELLS...AT LEAST EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LINES...IF NOT
DISCRETE...WITH A RISK FOR TORNADOES.