Severe Weather Threat for The Carolinas Saturday

Severe Weather Threat for The Carolinas Saturday

As we mentioned yesterday parts of The Eastern USA would be in line for severe weather.
Right now the STORM PREDICTION Center has Central and Eastern North Carolina and South Carolina are under a enhanced 30% risk of severe weather.

..SOUTHERN INTO MIDDLE ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS  
  
ALTHOUGH THE APPROACHING MID/UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO EVENTUALLY  
TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT ORIENTATION...APPRECIABLE STEEPENING OF  
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY BEFORE LOW-LEVEL COLD  
ADVECTION DIMINISHES CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL SATURDAY NIGHT.   
HOWEVER...AN INFLUX OF SEASONABLY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT  
/PRECIPITABLE WATER AOA 1.5 INCHES/ PROBABLY WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AT  
LEAST WEAK CAPE EAST OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.  THIS IS  
EXPECTED TO BE BOUNDARY LAYER BASED ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND  
SOUTHERN GEORGIA...INTO PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT AND MID  
ATLANTIC COASTAL PLAIN...WHILE A RESIDUAL COOL/STABLE SURFACE BASED  
LAYER LINGERS CLOSER TO THE BLUE RIDGE AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE  
NORTHERN DELMARVA PENINSULA.  
  
GIVEN THE INSTABILITY...FORCING NEAR THE WEAK SURFACE WAVE...AND  
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPSTREAM IMPULSE...IS EXPECTED TO  
CONTRIBUTE TO CONSIDERABLE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON  
INTO SATURDAY EVENING...WITH ONE OR MORE EVOLVING LINES OF  
THUNDERSTORMS.  IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AND DEEP  
LAYER MEAN FLOW...INCLUDING A RATHER STRONG SOUTHERLY 850 MB JET  
WHICH MODELS GENERALLY SUGGEST MAY BE ON THE ORDER OF 50 TO 70  
KTS...STRONGEST CONVECTION WILL PROBABLY INCLUDE A RISK FOR DAMAGING  
WIND GUSTS.  THE ENVIRONMENT MAY EVEN BECOME CONDUCIVE TO  
SUPERCELLS...AT LEAST EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LINES...IF NOT  
DISCRETE...WITH A RISK FOR TORNADOES.